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Stat 134 - Concepts of Probability |
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Instructor: Nathan Ross |
Office: SLC |
Office Hours: Mon. and Wed. 11 - 12 |
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| GSI: Tanya Gordeeva | Office: 307 Evans | Office Hours: Tues. 2 - 4 and Thur. 9 - 11 | ||
| Lecture Schedule: MWF 2-3 in 106 Stanley. | Supplemental Sections: Th 4-5 and Th 5-6 in Evans 332 | |||
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Prerequisites: One year of Calculus. |
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| Course Description: The purpose of this course is to gain exposure to rigorous notions of quantifying uncertainty; i.e. mathematical probability. Many real world tasks involve trying to predict the relative likelihood of different future outcomes (think stock prices, sports, insurance). Probability theory is the entryway to understanding how to provide "answers" in such situations. The assumed mathematical background for the course is one year of calculus (derivatives, sequences, series, integrals, etc). Homework will be assigned periodically and will be turned in for a grade. The remaining part of the course grade will be determined by two midterms and a final, each of which must be taken at their respective time and date. | ||||
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Topics Covered: Outcome space, discrete and continuous random variables, expectation, classical distributions in probability and statistics, central limit theorem. |
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| Some general remarks about the course: I will be using bspace to make announcements and also to keep your grades so that you can check that no mistakes have been made (something I recommend that you do). I will only answer emails that have questions of a timely nature - other questions can be asked directly to me in lecture. You will be allowed a scientific calculator on the exams and final, but not a graphing calculator. It is extremely important that you keep up on the homework; it not only affects your grade directly, but also largely determines your success on the exams and final. You may consult with others regarding homework solutions, but must write your own solutions. Any further level of collaboration in the course (such as reading another student's solution during an exam) constitutes cheating and is strictly prohibited. There are two supplemental discussion sections per week which are not mandatory, but I strongly urge that you attend one. My office hours are held in the student learning center, which is a good resource for outside help. Finally, we will be following the book closely; you should read it in tandem with the relevant lectures. | ||||
| Midterm 1: Wednesday, 15 February, in class.
Midterm 2: Wednesday, 21 March, in class. Final: Tuesday, 8 May, 2012 11:30-2:30 in TBD |
Grading Distribution: Homework: 10% Midterm 1: 15% Midterm 2: 30% Final: 45% |
Text: Title: Probability Author: Pitman ISBN: 0-387-97974-3 |
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| Homework Assignments: | ||||
| Assignment 1 (due 27 January) | ||||
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Section 1.1: 2 - 4, 7 - 8 Section 1.2: 1, 3 |
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| Assignment 2 (due 3 February) | ||||
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Section 1.3: 1, 2, 4 - 6, 8 - 10, 14 Section 1.4: 2 - 5, 7, 10, 11 Section 1.5: 1 - 3, 5, 7 |
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| Assignment 3 (due 10 February) | ||||
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Section 1.6: 1, 3, 5 - 7 Section 2.1: 2 - 5, 7, 10, 11 Section 2.2: 1, 2, 4 - 6, 8, 10, 12 - 14 Section 2.4: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9 Section 2.5: 1, 2, 5 - 8 | ||||
| Exam 1 Supplementary Problems (not to be handed in) | ||||
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Section 1.r: 1, 2, 4, 6 - 8, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19 Section 2.r: 2 - 6, 8, 11, 14, 15a, 15c, 17, 22, 24, 26 |
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| Assignment 4 (due 17 February) | ||||
| Section 3.1: 2, 4, 6, 9, 14 - 16 | ||||
| Assignment 5 (due 24 February) | ||||
| Section 3.2: 3, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19 | ||||
| Assignment 6 (due 2 March) | ||||
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Section 3.3: 1 - 3, 7, 8, 12, 13a, 13c, 16, 17, 20 Section 3.4: 2, 4, 5, 8 |
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| Assignment 7 (due 9 March) | ||||
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Section 3.4: 11, 12, 15 - 17 Section 3.5: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9 - 11, 14 Section 4.1: 2, 4 - 6, 8, 12, 13 |
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| Assignment 8 (due 16 March) | ||||
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Section 4.2: 2 - 4, 6, 8 - 10, 13a, 16 Section 4.4: 1, 3 - 5, 7, 10 Section 4.5: 1, 2, 4, 6 |
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| Exam 2 Supplementary Problems (not to be handed in) | ||||
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Section 3.r: 2, 3, 6 - 8, 10, 14, 17, 19, 20, 25 - 27 Section 4.r: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 14, 18, 21, 22, 25, 26, 30 |
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| Assignment 9 (due 6 April) | ||||
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Section 5.1: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 Section 5.2: 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16 |
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| Assignment 10 (due 13 April) | ||||
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Section 5.3: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12 Section 5.4: 1, 8, 9 - 12 Section 6.1: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 |
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| Assignment 11 (due 20 April) | ||||
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Section 6.2: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10, 12 Section 6.3: 2 - 4, 8, 10, 12, 13 |
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| Assignment 12 (due WEDNESDAY 25 April) | ||||
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Section 6.4: 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 16, 21 Section 6.5: 2 - 4, 6, 8 |
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| Final Exam Supplementary Problems (not to be handed in) | ||||
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Section 5.r: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12 - 14, 20, 25, 29 Section 6.r: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 20, 23, 24, 28 |
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| Schedule: | ||||
| Week 1 (18 - 20 January): Sections 1.1 - 1.3 | ||||
| Week 2 (23 - 27 January): Sections 1.4 - 1.6 | ||||
| Week 3 (30 January - 3 February): Sections 2.1, 2.2, and 2.4 | ||||
| Week 4 (6 - 10 February): Sections 2.5 - 3.1 | ||||
| Week 5 (13 - 17 February): Section 3.2 (MIDTERM WEEK) | ||||
| Week 6 (22 - 24 February): Sections 3.3 and 3.4 | ||||
| Week 7 (27 February - 2 March): Sections 3.5 and 4.1 | ||||
| Week 8 (5 - 9 March): Sections 4.1 and 4.2 | ||||
| Week 9 (12 - 16 March): Sections 4.4 and 4.5 | ||||
| Week 10 (19 - 23 March): Sections 5.1 and 5.2 (MIDTERM WEEK) | ||||
| Week 11 (2 - 6 April): Sections 5.3 and 6.1 | ||||
| Week 12 (9 - 13 April): Sections 6.2 and 6.3 | ||||
| Week 13 (16 - 20 April): Section 6.4 | ||||
| Week 14 (23 - 27 April): Section 6.5 and additional applications | ||||